Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities: Limit, No-Limit, and Tournament Strategies

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At least all the players I know do. Matthew Hilger, as both a player and author, has been greatly admired since his very clear and excellently organized, Internet Texas Hold'em, came out in 2003. He also has a website that's very popular with a forum discussing all kinds of issues which arise in poker, gaming, and life. With this book on Odds and Probabilities, he has added to his stature as an advisor because he expands his focus by addressing limit hold'em, no limit hold'em cash games, and no limit hold'em tournaments. He actually fills in nicely for the (very few) areas King Yao does not cover in his book. Hilger's approach is ideal for beginners because he not only explains pot odds, implied pot odds, and effective implied pot odds, but also rudimentary concepts such as adding and multiplying fractions along with probability. These are the types of questions that many newbies swept into games by the poker popularity explosion may be too embarrassed to ask on their own. Hilger made a good decision by sticking with the same type of organization he had in his first book. Every idea is followed up with sections called Test Your Skills and Chapter Review. Most players, I have found, really improve by studying expert hand analysis which is something Hilger performs many times throughout these pages. Although for me, my favorite section was the one concerning probability of winning with particular hands. Overall, Odds and Probabilities was invaluable.

I have been playing for a couple of years, managing small profits in NL cash games and sit-n-gos. I've read several books and understand the basics of pot odds and implied pot odds - but this book takes my understanding to a new level. In sit-n-gos, I found that i was folding way too often when short stacks went all-in. This book explains the process in analyzing these types of situations in detail. It also explains how to go about determining how much to bet to protect your hand - a concept which I really only applied by feel before reading this book. The title of the book makes it sound like you are in for a calculus class, but that is the opposite of what the book is about. Yes, you math guys will get plenty of explanations for how the calculations are done, but the real emphasis is on how odds affect strategy which is really all I was wanting. Finally, the charts rock! One chart showed the probability of a raiser holding a pocket pair which i didn't even know could be calculated. I see the light! excellent book!

I gave it 2 out of 5 because the math is poorly explained and organized. And the applied probabilities do not cover all important gaming situations. Nice charts, but a lot of websites post them. I was expecting a more rigorous approach of Hold'em math and a larger coverage. I found Petriv's and Barboianu's books on this subject far superior on these counts.

Hilger's first book, Internet Texas Hold'em, was a good book because it laid out poker strategy in an easy to read and complete volume. The new book has the same readability but focuses primarily on a largely misunderstood facet of poker, the math. This is not to say Hilger's book is a math textbook, it is not. He simply does an excellent job of explaining how to use the math of poker to get an edge.

Probably the most helpful portion of the book (after having read the text thoroughly and multiple times) is the charts section. In this section there are pages and pages of charts that are easily referenced to see what the chances of certain things are.

The math of poker is a hole in most people's game and many are intimidated by it. Hilger makes it accessible to all poker players with his easy to read and understand style.

If you had trouble with math in grade school, then this book may be just right for you. But I personally found it was too elementary. Come on--do you really need to explain how to add fractions and how to convert 1/3 to decimals? If you are THAT math-challenged, you probably can't count outs either! By spending so much time on remedial arithmetic, he doesn't cover a lot of ground.

If you've never heard of implied odds and don't have a clue how to size your bets, then by all means buy this book. For anyone who has read one or two poker books, this stuff is too basic--and nothing is new.

This book will boggle your mind in the beginning with terms and number crunching that probably will need a second or third reading to fully digest ... That is not necessarily a bad thing as long as you don't get frustrated trying to get the the 'meat' of the book. The book gets rolling with more 'advice' and good scenarios from the middle to the end ... although the author does favor certain types of hands. I would not recommend this as a first read for a novice player, but is a good addition to gain this author's prespective on the game.

I previewed this book before I bought it and it seemed like a good value and now that I have it, I still feel that way. The poor reviews from other customers must be from know it alls because unlike many poker titles, it delivers exactly what it says.

If you already know the odds then you dont need this, but I already knew how to calculate with the 2-4 method but it expands on that to add implied odds, and douts. Thats how far I am into this book so far, and I expect the rest of it to be worth the time to read it and the cost.

Do not be misled by the haters. If you are shopping for a book on the subject of texas holdem odds, I would say its worth it. Many poker books are convoluted and this one is perfectly readable. So the people who said it is too basic might be fans of the convoluted books that I dont fully understand, but I found this book useful to re-enforce what I already knew and to help me expand on that knowledge.

Last comment, the book wasnt the holy grail that I couldnt live without, but it definitely gave me a deeper understanding of the subject and I would certainly reccomend it.

Unless you're a math genius or your name is Chris Ferguson, you need this book.

Top-to-bottom odds and probabilities for limit and no-limit hold'em.

Loaded with charts and explanations. I purchased this book after seeing the charts in the back of the book ... unlike any I've seen elsewhere. You can't go wrong with this book ... it's one of my top favorites.

this review is for the 1st edition copyright 2006.
pros:
1. the various charts showing odds.
2. formula for how much to bet to protect ur hand ([pot+ur stack] / odds = x, bet more than x to protect ur hand and stack)pg129.
3. the basic formula for determining break-even odds (pot/[odds-1] = x, to not give opponent correct odds to call bet MORE than x)pg145.

cons:
1. need to check the math yourself: example pg129.

2. the book seems to be written to impress other mathematicians, rather than being written for average joes that just want to know the "411" - the important PRACTICAL FUNCTIONAL info in EASY TO UNDERSTAND FORMULA. example: pot odds. pot odds are a fundamental practical concept in poker. a lot of books and charts will give u the ODDS in terms of a PERCENT. but THIS ISN'T THE POT ODDS: u can't easily use this to determine whether or not to call. the explanation he gives on how to change a percentage into POT odds is way more complicated than it has to be. here is the SIMPLE way: first, take away the percent sign. if the percent is given as a decimal, move the decimal 2 places to the RIGHT. now: (100-percentage)/percentage to 1 = pot odds. for instance, if ur odds are given as 25% or 0.25: (100-25)/25 to 1 = (75)/25 to 1 = 3 to 1. read HIS explanation starting on the bottom third of pg20 and the formulas he gives in the top half of pg 21, and u'll see that this way is MUCH easier than his way (using his example my way: 0.33 = [100-33]/33 to 1 = 67/33 to 1 = about 2 to 1; to make money, ur EFFECTIVE odds should be 2.5 to 1 or better). and u'll also see why i say he wrote it to impress other mathematicians - not for us everyday peeps.

3. his CASH GAME examples are from LOW-LEVEL blind games - $0.50/$1 and $1/$2 games. now the players in these games are a lot looser and a lot less poker-savy than players in say the $100-$200 cash games - or even $20-$40 cash games. i assume, based on what i've read so far and the fact that i have never heard of him before, that he is strictly an internet/average tournament/low-level cash game player. NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT. LOTTA GREAT PLAYERS ARE "NO NAMERS". BUT TO ME, THE FACT THAT HIS MATH IS SO CUMBERSOME IS WHY I AIN'T HEARD OF HIM: IT AIN'T PRACTICAL. AT LEAST NOT FOR ME: CUZ I AIN'T NO MATH WHIZ THAT CAN CALCULATE THE DIVISION OF FRACTIONAL PERCENTAGES IN HIS HEAD.
against a TRUE MANIAC - i mean a guy who LITERALLY GOES ALL-IN EVERY HAND - sticking strictly to sklansky's LIMIT EARLY POSITION STARTING HANDS given in his book "hold'em poker for advanced players" WILL MAKE MONEY. i know - i've done it MANY times. u need to be really really patient and strict about this. and u need to STOP when u've won - can't push the fact that "the cards always break even" creating some real bs for fishes. but even when u've got almost the whole table calling cuz they all know that one guy's a maniac, if u wait for aces or kings or ak suited and move all-in, sklansky's "probability predictions" HOLD TRUE.
but against INTELLIGENT loose-aggressive players like gus hanson or doyle brunson (and just cuz u don't know their names don't mean that there aren't players JUST AS GOOD AS THESE GUYS ARE out there - it's just that i don't think they waste their time at $0.50/$1 tables when they can make bigger money playing for bigger stakes) CORRECT PLAY dictates that u PLAY THE PLAYER and LOOSEN UP. all the KNOWN authors write this: sklansky and brunson come to mind first. sklansky in his excellent book (if u REALLY want to know the DEEP math check THIS book out) "no-limit hold-em" writes (and i am paraphrasing): "anytime a player plays less than optimally against a particular type of player or makes a mistake, he has lost money; and playing TOO TIGHT against a loose player is MAKING A MISTAKE and losing u money". brunson put it even MORE SUCCINCTLY (paraphrasing again): he said "poker is a game of people" and "u must PLAY THE PLAYER - not JUST the cards". doyle's book "super systems" by the way, gives EXCELLENT STACK MANAGEMENT advice. real simple. u need to read a few footnotes to get them sometimes. but they basically deal with PERCENTAGES OF YOUR STACK. this is real PRACTICAL information for CASH games. now i'm a lot tighter than doyle - don't have his money or his experience, but this is one way i use his info: flopping a set is about 8 to 1 against. if i have just sat down and don't know any of these players or more importantly HOW THEY PLAY or WHAT THEY HAVE JUST GONE THRU AT THE TABLE RECENTLY, and a player in early position raises me 20% (1/5) of my stack and i have wired 4's and everyone else folds to me, I'M FOLDING. i'm no psychic: but the fact that he raised early, and everyone else respected his raise seems to indicate he is either playing correctly or running lucky. and because i'm no psychic and money means something to me, i'm not risking 1/5 of my stack for a 1/9 draw. to put numbers to what i'm saying: if i'm playing a $10-$20 nlh cash game and have $2000 behind me, and this guy raises to $400, and i'm the only one that's left to call, i fold. for all his purported "looseness" and "luck" (10-2 is nicknamed "the doyle brunson" and u won't believe why if u don't already know) - i dunno how "loose" or "lucky" he is cuz i never played with the man - i really find it hard to believe that if that was the ONLY way he played, or even the way he played MOST of the time, he would be as respected as he is among the top pros. while he keeps repeating the mantras (paraphrasing) "play the player" and "play position", he also states that the strategy he gives is a BASIC strategy that has been successful in playing the TOP players in the world. and if u REALLY read it - i mean LITERALLY TAKE NOTES (unless u got a photographic memory) and try it out - u'll see that it isn't that "wild" "loose" or "crazy". i mean i don't have his money, his experience, or his karma: so there are some things i don't do - cuz i tried it and they don't work for me. but if u haven't already, i really recommend reading "super systems" - db's nlh chapter really gives a well-rounded pic of the game.

recommendations:
in the movie "up in the air" a character says "it isn't a problem unless u got a solution". so here are my "solutions":
1. "Super Systems" by Doyle Brunson et al.
2. "Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players" by David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth.
*note: this book is about LIMIT HOLD'EM but is an excellent read for nlh players as well.
3. "No Limit Hold'em Theory and Practice" by David Sklansky and Ed Miller.
4. "Harrington on Hold'em Expert Strategy for No Limit Tournaments vol. 1" by Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie.
*note: i haven't read vol's. 2 or 3, but if vol. 1 is any indication, vol's. 2 and 3 are worth looking into.
5. "Championship No-Limit and Pot-Limit Hold'em" by T.J. Cloutier and Tom McEvoy.

the only thing i don't have a specific "solution" for are the charts. i don't know of any one book or chart system sold that will provide all the information in one setting. i basically use bits and pieces of the FUNCTIONAL math - math that i can apply EASILY and QUICKLY under the stress and fatigue of a long game - from the the list above, as well as other books i have bought (most of which i don't recommend cuz the cons outway the pros in my opinion like this one). and while u need to check the math urself, this book does give u a LOT of charts - so i haven't had to look elsewhere yet. as for the math, the 5 books i listed above give most of the good functional math facts u need. the rest of the formulas, i have figured out myself or "field stripped" myself from various sources.

so if u want to pay $16+ for charts (but check the math) then buy. if that's too pricey - it wudda been for me had i known - then look elsewhere.

Looks like a good book. I have not made it through the whole thing yet, but I can definitely recommend this vendor.

Exactly what I wanted. Odds are key to good Texas Hold'em. This book really meets my needs.

Covers the information the one needs to understand figuring your chances of winning a hand in texas holdem.